SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 2
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(25) Ole Miss (16-5, 11-6 ATS) at (4) Kentucky (20-1, 10-9 ATS)
Kentucky goes after its 15th straight home victory when it welcomes the Rebels to Rupp Arena for an SEC contest.
Ole Miss saw its three-game SU and four-game ATS winning streak halted on Sunday, losing 80-73 to Arkansas as a whopping 11½-point home favorite. The Rebels, who got outscored 46-34 in the second half, shot just 38.2 percent from the field (6-for-22 from three-point range) and allowed Arkansas to make 48.1 percent of its shots. Ole Miss is now 4-3 SU and ATS in SEC action, but 3-1 SU and ATS when visiting conference rivals.
The Wildcats took over the top spot in the polls to start last week, then promptly suffered their first loss of the season Tuesday, falling 68-62 at South Carolina as a seven-point road favorite. However, they bounced back nicely on Saturday, ending Vanderbilt’s 10-game winning streak with an 85-72 rout as an 8½-point home favorite. John Calipari’s team has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last seven games.
Kentucky is now 14-0 at Rupp Arena, outscoring visitors by 20 points per game (86-66) while also holding a shooting edge of 50.1 percent to 38.1 percent. Despite those advantages, the Wildcats are just 6-6 ATS on their court. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in road/neutral-site games, putting up 75.2 ppg (45.5 percent) and yielding 69.5 ppg (38.6 percent).
These teams met twice last year, once in the regular season at Ole Miss (85-80 Rebels win as a 9½-point home underdog) and once in the SEC tournament (71-58 Kentucky victory as an eight-point chalk). Prior to last year’s loss in Oxford, Miss., the Wildcats had won nine in a row against Ole Miss, and they’re still 96-12 SU in 108 all-time meetings, going 4-2 ATS in the last six.
Despite Sunday’s loss to Arkansas, Ole Miss is still on a plethora of positive pointspread surges, including 4-1 overall (all in the SEC), 6-1 on the highway, 5-2 against winning teams, 9-4 after a SU defeat and 11-4 after a non-cover. Kentucky is 4-1 ATS both in its last five at Rupp Arena and its last five on Tuesday, but the ‘Cats have failed to cover in 13 of their last 19 conference games. Also, they haven’t had consecutive spread-covers in SEC play this year.
The over is 8-2 in the Rebels’ last 10 Tuesday outings, but otherwise they’re on “under” runs of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 10-4 on the road and 5-1-1 against winning teams. Also, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these rivals. Conversely, Kentucky has topped the total in nine of its last 12 overall and seven of its last eight at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(5) Michigan State (19-5, 8-13 ATS) at (16) Wisconsin (16-5, 11-8 ATS)
Michigan State puts its 10-game overall and nine-game conference winning streaks on the line when it pays a visit to the Kohl Center for a Big Ten battle with the 16th-ranked Badgers.
The Spartans, already off to their best Big Ten start in school history, survived a scare against Northwestern on Saturday, pulling away late for a 79-70 victory. However, they never threatened to cover as a massive 13-point home chalk, and Tom Izzo’s troops are now 1-4 ATS in their last five games after starting conference play with five straight spread-covers. Michigan State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in Big Ten road games, and for the season, it is 6-3 (5-4 ATS) outside of East Lansing.
Wisconsin is coming off Thursday’s last-second 60-57 loss at 10th-ranked Purdue, though it cashed easily as a 9½-point road underdog to snap an 0-3 ATS slide. The Badgers have followed a predictable pattern through nine conference contests, going win-win-loss three different times. Bo Ryan’s squad is 4-0 (2-2 ATS) at home in Big Ten action, the last three being single-digit victories, and Wisconsin has not lost consecutive games all year.
Aside from giving up 70 points in a pair of victories over Northwestern, Michigan State is yielding just 58.4 ppg in its other seven conference wins, giving up 64 points or fewer in all seven. That includes a season-low 47 points in a 54-47 home victory over Wisconsin on Jan. 6. Meanwhile, the Badgers have given up 60 points or less in 10 of their last 12 contests, and they’re holding league rivals to just 55.3 ppg.
Michigan State barely cashed as a six-point favorite in last month’s seven-point home win over Wisconsin, improving to 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 3-0 ATS in the last three. However, the home team has won 10 consecutive regular-season clashes in this rivalry, and the Spartans are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to the Kohl Center. Their last win in Madison was Feb. 27, 2001 – a 51-47 victory as a 3½-point road chalk. Also, the home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Along with its current 1-4 ATS slump, Michigan State has failed to cash in 10 of its last 14 against winning teams and is 6-19-2 ATS in its last 27 on Tuesday. Wisconsin is on ATS upticks of 7-3 at home and 5-1 after a SU defeat, but it is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 on Tuesday.
The Spartans are riding “under” streaks of 6-2 overall, 5-1 on the highway, 15-5 within the Big 10, 16-5 on Tuesday and 6-2 versus winning teams. The Badgers are on “under” runs of 10-2 overall, 39-13 after a spread-cover and 6-2 against winning teams. Finally, the under has cashed in six of the last eight clashes between these rivals, with last month’s battle at Michigan State staying well below the 131½-point posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER
NBA
Memphis (26-21, 27-19-1 ATS) at Cleveland (38-11, 25-23-1 ATS)
One day after holding off Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, the Grizzlies make their only visit of the season to Quicken Loans Arena to battle LeBron James and the red-hot Cavaliers.
Zack Randolph scored 22 points and pulled down 17 rebounds as Memphis rallied from a late four-point deficit and beat Los Angeles 95-93 as a one-point home underdog Monday. The Grizzlies halted a brief two-game losing skid with the victory and are now on a 16-5 SU roll. They’ve also been one of the best moneymakers in the NBA since early December, going 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 contests, including 8-3 ATS on the road.
Cleveland ran its winning streak to eight in a row with Sunday’s 114-89 rout of the Clippers, with James (32 points, 11 assists) contributing a double-double in 40 minutes of action. The Cavaliers easily cashed as a 12-point home favorite, their fourth straight spread-cover following a 3-8-1 ATS slump. The Cavs have won their last three games against the TWolves (home), Pacers (road) and Clippers (home) by 14, 21 and 25 points after winning their previous five by a total of 17 points, including three one-point victories.
Memphis ended a seven-game SU and five-game ATS losing skid to Cleveland back on Dec. 8, winning 111-109 in overtime as a 7½-point home underdog. The Grizzlies have lost five straight games at Quicken Loans Arena, including a 20-point defeat in 2008 and a 15-point setback last year.
Memphis is 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games on Tuesday, but aside from that, this club is on pointspread tears of 15-6-1 overall, 7-2 on the highway, 12-3 as an underdog, 7-3 when catching between five and 10½ points, 21-6-1 against Eastern Conference squads and 4-0 versus the Central Division.
In addition to cashing in four straight overall and four of five as a favorite, the Cavaliers are on a 10-4 ATS roll against Southwest Division opponents. However, they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five on Tuesday and 1-5 ATS in their last six when laying between five and 10½ points at home.
The Grizzlies sport “over” streaks of 13-7 overall, 20-8 as a visitor, 8-3 when playing on back-to-back nights, 10-4 as a ‘dog, 20-7 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 6-2 against winning teams and 4-0 on Tuesday. Likewise, Cleveland has topped the total in five of six at home (all as a favorite), seven of nine as a chalk and four of five against the Western Conference. Finally, six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the posted price, as have seven of the last nine clashes in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (30-16 SU and ATS) at Oklahoma City (26-21, 28-19 ATS)
The Hawks, who play just .500 ball on the highway, look to snap a two-game road losing skid when they trek to the Ford Center for a duel with Kevin Durant and the Thunder.
Atlanta followed up Friday’s impressive nine-point home win over Boston with Saturday’s ugly 104-86 loss at Southeast Division rival Orlando, falling way short as a 5½-point road underdog. The Hawks, who also suffered a 15-ponit loss at San Antonio on Wednesday, are just 11-11 as a visitor (13-9 ATS). Still, the Hawks enter February on an 8-4 SU and ATS roll. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in 42 of Atlanta’s 46 games, including the last seven in a row, and the winner is 20-2 ATS in its 22 roadies.
Oklahoma City has bounced back from a three-game losing skid with back-to-back home wins over Denver (101-84) and Golden State (112-104). The Thunder easily covering as a two-point favorite versus the Nuggets but just missed as an 8½-point chalk in Sunday’s win over the Warriors despite a season-high 45 points from Durant, who has now scored at least 25 points in 21 consecutive games, tallying 30 or more 17 times during this stretch. Durant is averaging 29.6 ppg on the season
The Thunder have won eight of their last 11 at the Ford Center, going just 5-6 ATS (all as a favorite). In fact, the underdog is 12-4 ATS in Oklahoma City’s last 16 games.
Atlanta entered this season with a three-game winning streak against the Thunder, but that ended Jan. 18 in Georgia, as Oklahoma City pulled out a 94-91 victory, cashing as a six-point underdog with Durant (29 points) and Jeff Green (15 points, 11 rebounds) leading the way. The Thunder franchise – going back to its days as the Seattle SuperSonics – is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with the Hawks. Also, the ‘dog has gotten the money in four of the last five head-to-head battles.
Atlanta is on ATS runs of 19-8-1 against the Western Conference, 8-2-1 versus the Northwest Division, 12-3-1 after a SU loss, 7-0-1 after a double-digit defeat and 10-2 after a non-cover, but the Hawks are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when catching less than five points on the road.
Aside from a 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 as a favorite, the Thunder are on positive pointspread stretches of 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 18-5 on Tuesday, 6-0 against winning teams, and 37-17 after a non-cover. In fact, only twice all year has Oklahoma City failed to cash in consecutive games.
These teams have stayed under the total in each of their last four meetings overall and their last four battles in Oklahoma City. Furthermore, the Thunder carry “under” trends of 6-2 overall, 7-3 at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 when laying less than five points at home and 7-0-1 on Tuesday. Also, Atlanta sports “under” trends of 4-1-1 on the road, 3-1-1 as an underdog, 3-1-1 against the Western Conference and 5-0 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
yn also sidelined, the Habs’ most productive line composed of Cammalleri, Kostisyn and Tomas Plekanec, which has scored 39 of the team’s 91 even-strength goals, is now missing two key components.
